NASA Panel Puts Starship Lunar Mission at 22 Flights
A new internal estimate details a significantly higher number of launches for SpaceX's vehicle to support an Artemis Moon landing.
By Isabella Morales ·
NASA’s own safety advisors have put a number on the Starship launch count for a lunar landing: 22.
The estimate came during a quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday, where member and former astronaut Charlie Precourt addressed risks associated with the Artemis program. This figure represents the number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit, enabling its journey to the Moon, landing, and return to lunar orbit.
The number has been a moving target for NASA for years, with the agency generally declining to provide specifics. In 2023, then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, Lisa Watson-Morgan, stated she was reluctant to give a precise figure. She later characterized the count as being in the “high single digits to the low double digits,” a figure suggesting around a dozen launches. Other officials have cited “high teens.” The strategy requires one depot Starship followed by multiple tanker flights to load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant.
The long-standing expectation has been that SpaceX would enhance Starship's lift capacity, thereby reducing the number of tanker flights needed. However, some NASA officials are now concerned that this improvement may not be happening, or at least not quickly enough to make Starship a meaningful part of returning astronauts to the Moon for NASA this decade.
The new estimate of 22 launches reflects a significant increase from previous projections, a number that would be required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander for a lunar voyage. The panel's discussion centered on the risks associated with the Artemis Program.
The discussion of this figure comes as NASA and SpaceX work to meet the ambitious goals of the Artemis program. The agency's guidance on this metric has been to state that a precise figure is not available. The panel's role is to provide independent advice on program safety.
The number of launches required for a lunar mission is a key factor in planning and safety considerations for the program. The panel's meeting addressed risks associated with the Artemis Program. The conversation about launch counts for lunar missions is ongoing. The agency has not provided a comment on the new figure.
Source: Ars Technica
